Bilawal’s rant for ‘Kashmir’ is his passport for Security in Pakistan ?

Bilawal Bhutto wants Kashmir

What made the young Bilawal Bhutto say "I will take back Kashmir, all of it, and I will not leave behind a single inch of it because, like the other provinces, it belongs to Pakistan"? What made him talk Kashmir while campaigning in Multan with Yusuf Raza Gilani ? Indian leaders may react strongly on this ranting for ‘Kashmir’ & for the young Bilawal these words may haunt & question him in future, if he happens to be a Prime Minister of the country, but the question remains what was the need for Bilawal to talk Kashmir from Multan, where there are too many other issues of relevance than ‘Kashmir’

Answer to the above questions lies in another important question? Which is, who were the audience that Bilawal was addressing to, when he talked the ‘K’ word?  It was definitely not for the people of the backward area of Multan who are still trying to come out of the destruction caused by the recent floods.

‘Kashmir’ is and has been the favourite word of the intelligence agency ISI & the Army of Pakistan. It seems that the young Bilawal’s rant for every inch of Kashmir was addressed to this particular audience. The reason behind it is simple, as many in PPP privately talk and hold the then ISI & Army responsible for Benazir’s assassination! It is no surprise that Bilawal is talking the language which is pleases the ears of the ISI and the Army. So yeh dil mange Kashmir speech was his passport for security in Pakistan.    

The young Bhutto is indeed trying his best to step into the shoes of his mother Late Benazir Bhutto. Bilawal Bhutto (26) is not new to politics but his inexperience is obvious and plastered on his script reading skills. Irony of politics is that inexperience and lack of ground work usually ends up a Politician into a ‘Political Actor’. Its often said that ‘an actor is as good as his script’ but strangely that does not apply on ‘Political Actors’. Bilawal was given a strong political script on ‘Kashmir’ but his inexperience was obvious in his script ranting, even his act of enthusiasm couldn’t cover his nervous script reading.    

Lessons for BJP in by-polls loss.. Its not Modi but some thing else ?

After every rise the fall is inevitable. Though the smater you are, the slower and lesser is the fall. BJP's story after a meteoric rise in Lok Sabha elections is different, in the by-elections post Lok Sabha polls, the party has lost badly in many states. Statistics substantiate its declining numbers, party could only win 20 seats out of 42 it had held in various states in the by-polls. In various states this is how BJP performed by-elections 0/3 in Uttrakhand, 1/3 in Karnataka, 2/3 in Madhya Pradesh 4/10 in Bihar, 3/11 in UP, 1/4 in Rajasthan, 6/9 in Gujarat.

These defeats are succesive and these blows can be exploited by the opposition to spread the word that BJP is on a decline and Modi wave has now receded. After Lok Sabha win BJP has understood the importance of spreading the word among masses (Ache Din Aayenge) and party needs to understand that every defeats has some leasons to be learnt from

1. Modi did his bit in Lok Sabha elections and now its party's turn: As wrongly interpreted by mass media, in none of the above by-elections Modi govt's performance or his wave generated during Lok Sabha elections mattered to the voters, state elections are faught on very local issues. Ironically the local leaders of BJP are still in the hangover of Lok Sabha win, thus the arrogance and disconnnect with masses & issues at the grass root level.

2. Either you are with BJP or against them: The opposition parties of BJP are uniting & burrying their own differences with a clear strategy cut out for voters 'Either you are with BJP or against them'. Bihar is a glaring example of this and BSP's no show in UP by-polls also resulted the political equations into the above mentioned scenario.

3. BJP wins when its Karyakarta brings out the voter: The prominent commonality in all the by-poll defeats for BJP has been a no show by its voter thus bringing down the voting percentage. The party should not forget that Modi created history because his voters turned out in historic numbers. But it seems that in these by-polls voters have suddenly lost the zeal to come out and vote. This is a direct reflection of Karyakartas complacency.

4. Modi talked Development but local leaders talk Communal: This miscalculation has destroyed the perception of the party that was created and nurtured during Lok Sabha ellections. Modi always talked of development but suddenly the local leadership of BJP is turning the agenda into communal. In this age masses & classes are well informed, Communal Issues can afffect a section but the Developmental Issues can have influence accross the sections of society. Glaring example of this is when Rahul Gandhi's rhetoric & dramatics failed because he was not able to convince people on the issues of development

5.    Modi Government's accomplishments & future plans are not publicised at local level: State elections are fought on local issues but BJP's state leadership must show the accomplisments & future plans of Modi Govt because these examples will inspire people in various state to look upto a party that is claiming to bring in the change from Center to State govt. Infact there can be a slogan for it 'We did it in the Center when you voted for us, now we will replicate it in the State give us a chance here'

All is well if it ends well but ironically in Politics there is never an end. BJP's karyakarta and local neta must realise this and stop thinking that win in Lok Sabha elections is an end.